Context
Avagro is a Turkish agricultural group. In summer 2023 they were looking at the United States: obvious appeal, no brand there, no regulatory foothold, no route to market.
Market entry studies have a habit. They get commissioned by someone who is already decided, and they confirm the decision. This one was scoped to test the economics and accept that the answer might be no.
Diagnosis
The barrier wasn’t demand and it wasn’t the product. It was the cost of being allowed to sell. Compliance, certification, regulatory work, lawyers: all of it easy to underestimate from Istanbul and impossible to skip once you’re in. On top sits a long runway before sales reach anything like normal volume.
Modelled against the budget they actually had, Avagro would have spent a serious share of its resources before earning anything back.
Then the comparison settled it. Europe was easier to read, cheaper to enter, and faster to a result. Africa already had traction worth feeding.
Results
Avagro didn’t enter the United States.
That’s the result, not a shortfall of it. Compliance, certification, legal support, and setup for a US agri-tech entry run to roughly $450,000 in year one before meaningful revenue shows up. They kept that money and put it somewhere it could work.
Two months of analysis, about 200 pages: financial model, product-by-product viability, market and competitor work, entry channels, the regulatory picture, indirect costs, and a straight comparison against the alternatives.
There’s no dashboard for money that wasn’t spent. The recommendation still changed where roughly $450,000 of investment went.